Archive
What the last cycle did.
- Archive names
- 44
- Closed
- 35
- Liquidated
- 8
- Broken DA
- 1
By stage
Close rate among names that reached the stage. Median days is among those that actually closed.
| Stage | n | Close rate | Median days | % done mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listed shell | 44 | 80% | 335 | 8% |
| Post-DA | 36 | 97% | 155 | 24% |
| S-4 on file | 27 | 100% | 105 | 40% |
| Amendment tightening | 1 | 100% | 126 | 68% |
| Proxy card / DEFM14A | 26 | 100% | 34 | 82% |
| Vote printed | 26 | 100% | 10 | 94% |
| Effective | 35 | 99% | 8 | 96% |
Proxy card → close
Median 34 days. SEC floor is 20 days to the meeting.
DA → close
Archive median 155 days. 2017–21 literature median was 148d — later vintages ran longer.
What the tape usually does
Common often pops on DA, then fades as the S-4 sits. A proxy card is a late-stage tell — historically a small 5–10 session bid, then consolidation into the meeting. Post-close, the 2020–21 cohort averaged about $3.85 twelve months later versus $10 trust. Rights move with the same news, more levered. Coverage on daily *R prints before 2024 is thin; we do not fake a tape we do not have.
Rights/warrant daily prints and exact EX-99 proxy-card first-detect dates are sparse pre-2024. Proxy dates here are DEFM14A (or close−30d inferred, flagged). Redemptions incomplete. Prefer EDGAR accession over press-release color.